About the System
This is Phase I of EACWARN development project, focusing on economic dimension based on five indicators; namely—poverty, income distribution, food security, public debt and welfare. These indicators are the root causes of instability in society. It is foundational; more can be built on it. The room for expansion includes political, governance, social, environmental and technological dimensions.
A theoretical perspective
Why is human security very low in East Africa, just below half (0.5) out of 1, resulting into conflict? The answer is not straightforward, but embedded in the root causes of conflict. Challenges facing East Africa Community EAC are complex, ranging from Covid-19 to terrorism.
How should we tackle the root causes of conflict to achieve durable peace and security as well as sustainable development? East Africa is far from achieving this. The region is characterized by risks, threats and vulnerabilities. In the face of persistent risks, we have to act.
The United Nations UN 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), took a step to deal with human insecurity. It was adopted in 2015 as a universal call to action to end human insecurity and insure peace and prosperity by 2030. There are 17 SDGs, all integrated; action in one affects outcomes in others.
However, development must be balanced or sustainable: political, governance, social, economic, technological and environmental. Each indicator has the potential to unlock the path to sustainable development, peace and security. But no one indicator will succeed on its own to bring peace and security.
A technical perspective
EACWARN is an early warning system, its methodology is science-based (data-driven). It is user-friendly and allows policymakers to prioritise policy options. The results can be validated, and contributors can include NGOs, academic institutions, the United Nations, and civil society organizations CSOs.
It fulfills the East Africa Community EAC requirements for 1) data collection 2) trend analysis 3) policy prescription. There are two types of data in the system: structural and event. The structural data covers the period 2000-2020. The event data are from mass media. It uses structural and event data under different dimensions such as economic.
This system analyses trends in indicators which can be used for conflict monitoring in the East Africa region and prescription of policy options. There are pre-defined early warning thresholds for each indicator.
The system makes it easier for all kind of users—casual and advanced users retrieve the data they need. For the casual users, there are maps and graphics across EAC countries and time. More advance users can download their desired data using data query tools.